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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.