🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."